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Methodology
April 1, 2024
5 min read

Hot 100 Index Methodology

A comprehensive guide to how we construct, maintain, and calculate the Hot 100 Index.

Overview

The Hot 100 Index is DrawTheory's flagship market indicator, designed to track the performance of the most actively traded and valuable Pokemon Trading Card Game (TCG) cards from recent sets. This equal-weighted index provides collectors and traders with a clear benchmark for understanding market trends and card valuations.

Key Characteristics

  • 100 cards from the most recent TCG sets
  • Equal-weighted construction methodology
  • English language cards only
  • Non-promotional cards only
  • Daily price updates

Universe Selection

The selection universe for the Hot 100 Index is carefully curated to ensure it represents the most relevant and liquid segment of the Pokemon TCG market.

Eligibility Criteria

1. Set Eligibility

Cards must be from one of the 20 most recently released English Pokemon TCG sets. This ensures the index reflects current market dynamics rather than historical collectibles.

2. Language Requirement

Only English language cards are included. Japanese and other language variants are excluded to maintain pricing consistency and market comparability.

3. Non-Promotional

Promotional cards, prize cards, and special distribution cards are excluded. Only cards available through standard booster pack distribution are eligible.

4. Price Threshold

Cards must have a minimum average selling price to ensure sufficient market liquidity and reliable pricing data.

Index Construction

Equal Weighting Methodology

The Hot 100 Index uses an equal-weighted methodology, meaning each of the 100 constituent cards contributes equally to the index value. This approach offers several advantages:

  • Diversification: No single card dominates the index performance
  • Broad representation: Equal exposure to all price segments within the selection universe
  • Reduced volatility: Less susceptible to price manipulation of individual high-value cards
  • Transparency: Simple and easy to understand calculation methodology

Index Calculation

The index value is calculated as follows:

Index Value = (Sum of all constituent card prices) / Divisor × 100

The divisor is adjusted at each rebalancing to ensure continuity in the index value.

Rebalancing Schedule

The Hot 100 Index is rebalanced monthly to ensure it continues to reflect the most relevant cards in the market.

Rebalancing Process

  1. Review eligible universe - Identify all cards meeting eligibility criteria
  2. Rank by price - Sort eligible cards by their 30-day average price
  3. Select top 100 - Include the highest-priced 100 cards
  4. Calculate new divisor - Adjust to maintain index continuity
  5. Publish changes - Announce additions and deletions

Data Sources & Pricing

Card prices are sourced from multiple marketplaces to ensure accuracy and reliability:

  • Primary pricing from major TCG marketplaces
  • Volume-weighted average prices where available
  • Daily price updates at market close
  • Outlier detection and removal algorithms

All prices represent ungraded, near-mint condition cards unless otherwise specified.

Index History

The Hot 100 Index was launched on April 1, 2024, with a base value of 100.00. Historical data is available from inception, allowing users to track market performance over time.

Questions?

If you have questions about our methodology or would like to learn more about the Hot 100 Index, please don't hesitate to reach out to our team at hello@drawtheory.xyz.