Hot 100 Index Methodology

The Hot 100 is DrawTheory's flagship market indicator. It tracks the top of the modern Pokémon TCG market — the 10 most valuable cards from each of the 10 most recently released main expansions, equal-weighted — so one number captures the direction and sentiment of the cards people are actually chasing.

The eligible universe is English-language cards from main expansions only. Promotional releases, POP series, McDonald's and Trick-or-Trade sets, tins, collection boxes, training kits, and other special distributions are excluded — the index reads booster-set cards with real market depth.

At each reconstitution the index looks at the 10 most recently released eligible sets. There is no minimum price threshold: selection is by price ranking itself.

Within each of the 10 sets, cards are ranked by their market price as of the reconstitution date, and the top 10 enter the index — 100 constituents in total. Note this is top-10-per-set, not top-100 overall: the structure keeps every current set represented rather than letting one blockbuster set crowd out the rest.

The index is equal-weighted on returns. Each day, every constituent's daily price return is computed, and the index return is their simple average — no card's price level gives it more influence than any other. The index level is then chained:

Index_t = Index_t−1 × (1 + average constituent return_t)

The base value is 1,000 on March 31, 2024, with the first live day April 1, 2024. On days with no fresh prices the index holds flat rather than interpolating.

The index is reconstituted 7 days after each new main-set release — a short seasoning window that lets launch prices settle before the set's cards become eligible. At each reconstitution the full selection is re-run: the newest 10 sets are taken, cards are re-ranked, and the constituent list is replaced. Because sets release on Pokémon's schedule, reconstitution is event-driven rather than calendar-driven.

Prices are daily TCGplayer snapshots. Each card is quoted at its mid price, falling back to the listed market price where no mid is available. All prices represent ungraded, near-mint condition cards. Data updates once per day.

The Chase Card Index is the Hot 100's deliberate opposite. Where the Hot 100 re-selects broadly and weights equally, the Chase Card Index holds exactly one card per modern main set — the set's single most valuable card, chosen 30 days after release — and never sells. Constituents are value-weighted, so the biggest chase cards move the index most. It shares the Hot 100's base (1,000 on March 31, 2024) and pricing, and its basket grows by one card with every set. Together the two read different layers of the same market: the Hot 100 is breadth and rotation; the Chase Card Index is the high end, held.

If you have questions about the methodology, reach the desk at hello@drawtheory.xyz.